The declaration of Uhuru Kenyatta as President-elect in the October 26 repeat election has truly divided Kenyans even further.
All eyes are now on Uhuru, and everyone wants to see what he will do next. Raila Odinga, as expected, has rubbished his win and has now created what seems like an alternative government with a new raft of demands, including a fresh election in 90 days. He has now called a new round of street protests in what is likely to push the country to the edge yet again. We have barely recovered from the last round of protests, in which conservative estimates put the economic losses at close to Sh700 billion, which is enough to run for a quarter year. How Uhuru will deal with this new round of protests will test his leadership skills going forward.
BEING SOFT ON RAILA
There is, however, exasperation in certain circles within Jubilee feeling that Uhuru is not firm enough against his arch-nemesis. They think he is not taking the current political situation seriously enough to do something drastic about it. There are many clips on social media showing how Jomo Kenyatta effectively contained Oginga Odinga, just about this time in 1969, including banning the KPU and also detaining all of its MPs. Each of them was released at different times every time, with Wasonga Sijeyo coming out last in 1978, having spent nearly a decade behind bars. But times have changed. We got a new Constitution and gave sweeping freedoms to whoever will use them. There seems to be little or no way of controlling anyone these days.
UHURU’S DIFFICULT POSITION
Unlike Uhuru, Mwai Kibaki somehow managed to rein in Raila’s unbridled ambitions and contained his expectations. Kibaki kept him imagining that if he was quiet enough, he should succeed him as President. This carrot-and-stick method worked and the donkey followed quietly until Kibaki completed his term. Then at the opportune time, Kibaki openly backed the ICC-indicted Uhuru and William Ruto for the presidency, when in the natural order of things;he should have gone for Raila. Today, Raila has no more hope of stepping into State House than he had under Kibaki, and for that, he is investing on bringing the house down. Uhuru is in a difficult position, knowing how difficult it is to undergo international justice systems at the ICC. What he went through there, he wouldn’t wish it on his worst enemy.
STRONG FATHERS AND WEAK SONS
It is said that strong fathers tend to produce weak sons and vice versa. Uhuru appears to be the weak son of a strong father, while Raila is the strong son of a weak father. This is one way of explaining the current political impasse. While indeed the Constitution guarantees sweeping freedoms to everyone, one wonders whether you have the document only to blame for the current situation. Granted, Raila has ring-fenced himself with people who will do anything for him. He has become virtually untouchable, a law unto himself. It is clear also that he has honed his bullying skills from years of schoolyard fights and possibly prison yard fights. He is now clenching his fist at the blue-eyed boy, Uhuru, who has been raised with velvet gloves.
Some have argued that Uhuru could not be any tougher on Raila than his father was on Odinga. While the country is watching the unfolding events closely, it remains to be seen how Uhuru will manoeuvre his way out of this.
If you compare Ruto’s political style to that of Uhuru, you begin to see that this impasse has a lot to do with Uhuru’s personality. The President is the artless son of Kenya’s founding father, shielded from the street-corner society that basically fed Raila’s political philosophy. Raila attended Maranda School, possibly going there barefooted like the many other kids in his class. He saw the struggle for Independence, before Uhuru was in diapers and operating from Government House. Ruto, on the other, grew on the street-corner diet and is more the political son of retired President Daniel Moi. He is much more Machiavellian than his boss, and would most likely have dealt with Raila with a heavy fist.
DASHED HOPES – CORRECTING MISDEEDS
Questions have been raised about how Raila, using the very same Constitution that Uhuru is using, is able to throw harmful punches at the President with little or no reply. Raila indeed took part in drafting this Constitution and knows each and every corner of it. It seems that even Uhuru’s best advisers are not doing him justice. They have allowed Raila to make a mockery of his presidency. He is putty in Raila’s hands. And unless things change drastically, Kenyans will be in for a rough ride in the coming days.
RAILA’S STRONG INCENTIVE
Raila is properly incentivised to give Uhuru a hard ride. In fact, his age now becomes his biggest asset. He has nothing much to fear as he has more days behind him than ahead of him. Uhuru needs to leave a good legacy and yet this will become increasingly difficult in the run-up to the next election. Uhuru is likely to continue suffering from the intensive bullying of Raila who is, it appears, trying to correct past mistakes. Independence brought in so much hope for Kenya. When given the chance to form government, a guileless Odinga basically mortgaged his political destiny by pegging it to the release of Jomo Kenyatta. Within five years of the release of Jomo, Odinga had swapped places with him as the quintessential prisoner of the state. Was Odinga quickly intimidated out of his position and political destiny? It seems that the son is trying to correct some of the weaknesses of the father. Kenyans might just have been caught up in an Oedipal battle of gargantuan proportions.
TAMING RAILA
Raila’s actions and vituperative response to Uhuru’s victory invites the angriest reactions from Jubilee supporters. Virtually all those who voted for Uhuru in the last election have not been spared by Raila’s invective, which has served to raise tension yet again. These are people who look up to Uhuru and all eyes really are on him right now. He must move fast to contain him. But can Uhuru really do it? He comes out as a soft, well-meaning fellow who is nothing like his father who had killer instincts. He lacks the direct resolve to get down and get dirty with his arch-nemesis Raila. And Raila knows it. In 1997, Uhuru’s victory in the Gatundu South parliamentary race was snatched from him by Moses Mwihia’s famous ruse. Mwihia faked his own kidnap and played on the mind of the electorate to imagine that Kanu’s President Daniel Moi and Uhuru had conspired to destroy the peasant boy so that the son of the First President could be MP. The angry people of Gatundu South, edgy and angry at Moi’s repressive regime, swallowed Mwihia’s ruse and by the time they realised it, Mwihia was the MP. There was nothing they could do about it. From then on, they had a soft spot. After being outfoxed by Mwihia, he retreated to the family business and opted to lead the quiet life of a business magnate and forget about politics.
He literally retreated to tend his father’s goats and sheep, so to speak. However, the gods were not done with the little shepherd boy. As fate would have it, before that electoral term was over, he was seated in the same Parliament with Mwihia and even got the better of him by being appointed to the Cabinet. Things moved fast for him and Moi would eventually put him in the front row as a presidential candidate to succeed him. However, Raila marshalled forces against Uhuru and stole from him what was obviously his victory. Raila then gave Uhuru’s presidency to Kibaki, who in turn frustrated Raila. What if Raila had cut a deal with Moi to support Uhuru and then get the vice presidency and eventually the presidency? Perhaps we would now be seeing the second term of a Raila presidency. Trust Raila to have all the wrong advisers and also he himself being a poor strategist, he eventually became the Prime Minister after 2007, despite being warned not to enter government. With hindsight, all his friends agree that it was a bad move. If you want to know who did not vote for Raila, there are seven former commissioners led by Issack Hassan who did not vote for him. You can start from there.
WHY APPEASING RAILA WILL NOT WORK
Jubilee’s hawks are dead set against any (appeasement) deal with Raila. They simply do not want to work with him or give him a portion of government to run. These are a group spoiling for a fight with Uhuru about this. In fact, the Kalenjins generally consider the failure at the polls by Raila as fitting punishment for what he did to them when he was Prime Minister. They are likely to oppose any deal with Raila, which they may construe as threatening the chances of DP Ruto in 2022. They have, therefore, been voting against Raila – not so much because they love Uhuru but because they hate the former PM more. This is also true for the many enemies Raila has picked up along the way.
Besides, Raila has also benefited from similar appeasement deals from 2007 through to last year, when the nation conducted yet another appeasement clearing the deck at the IEBC and replacing the entire commission. We, the taxpayers, paid hefty sums to commissioners who were retired in ‘Raila’s interest’ — an act of appeasement that never achieved much for all of us.
AN UNATTAINABLE PIE IN THE SKY
Only a year ago, in August, Siaya Senator James Orengo exuded confidence that the departure of the Hassan-led IEBC would guarantee a ‘free and fair’ election. Pushing for their departure had been the culmination of the demands by the opposition, who had help massive street demonstrations against them, much like we are going through now. So happy was Orengo that he in fact promised to dedicate an entire chapter in an upcoming memoir about the way the deal was struck. Praising the commissioners for agreeing to quit, Orengo said, “Kenya is a great nation. It is by acts like these that Kenya has refused to go down out of conflicts. Kenya has always found a way to rise up and, given their patriotism, many Kenyans will remember this day.”
Well, Kenyans remember it all right, but not for what it now represents. I am not sure he still wants to bestow such substantial space and prominence to the deal now that, with hindsight, it appears to have been a monumental mistake. There really was nothing wrong with Hassan and his commissioners, who included such eminent personalities as Yusuf Nzibo, Abdulahi Sharawe, Muthoni Wangari, Albert Bwire, Mohammed Alawi, Kule Godana, Mahiri Zaja and Thomas Letangule. We replaced them with the faltering Wafula Chebukati, who has turned out to be a master in poor communication. Hassan was a confident communicator and was clearly in charge of the commission.
DIGGING UHURU’S GRAVE
US political activist and writer George Jackson wrote, “Men who read Lenin, Fanon, and Che don’t riot, ‘they mass,’ ‘they rage,’ they dig graves.’
I am afraid Raila is digging Uhuru’s grave. And it is getting deeper.”
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