They say that when the deal is too sweet,
think twice. But what they failed to tell you is that there is never a reason
to think twice if you know what your negotiating partner has to win or lose. In
Uhuru’s case, he’s in a situation that he must first be a man before he can lay
claim to any dignity that comes with his position. He’s tainted with blood and
even though I’d like to give him benefit of doubt on the basis of the fact that
he’s yet to be found guilty, I’m frustrated by the knowledge of the fact that
he’s in the highest office in the land. This means that he is in a position to
ensure that he’s declared innocent irrespective of the facts of the case: only
that in this case, the innocence would be a result of intense negotiations and
not a result of the Kenyan government machinery alone. Failure to exorcise the
ICC ghost could make Uhuru a lifetime prisoner and as a person, that’s a big
problem……leave alone its implication for him as president.
So the West can rest easy that Uhuru has a
lot to lose and will be willing to give up much. As a matter of fact, the fear
is that he might be willing to give up more than the country can afford. I do
not want to say that choices have consequences because I firmly hold Raila’s
version of the results (Raila 5.7m: uhuru 4.3m) as the absolute truth. However,
the reality is that whatever machinations saw the will of Kenyans manipulated
put Uhuru in state house and now his personal problems have become a national
sore. In negotiations between nations, the presumptions that are disclosed to
the public are all about the nations and what they have to gain from the
relationships. However, there’s rarely a win win situation in negotiations and
where there is, there’s rarely a partnership that benefits both countries
equally. There’s always one to give up more; and in most cases, it is the
weaker party that gives up more.
Weaknesses can either be on the part of the
country or on the part of the leaders. A leader who is having a major weakness
can be “convinced” to ignore negotiation elements that he ought to have noticed
and prevented. We have seen some of the most pathetic business partnerships
being sealed under very weird circumstances. For instance, it beats all
understanding for Nigeria which is among the leading oil producers to be having
its oil processing and mining operations almost entirely controlled by
foreigners. As a matter of fact, the host communities whose land is being
degraded most by the oil are suffering as their land is no longer usable due to
massive oil spills and the government that ought to protect them is turning a
blind eye. Whatever influenced the negotiations, it’s clear that the Nigerian
authorities were negotiating from a point of weakness.
So when you see Kenya engage in any
bilateral or multilateral trade agreements, you have every reason to be afraid.
In his desperation to avoid the “fugitive” status, Uhuru may not mind giving up
a few things here and there. The ICC card will always be used against him and
you can bet that the West will be having a field day with this. Choices have
consequences…….the only difference is that it’s not Kenyans who made the
choice.
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