Kenyan politics are personality based. The
talk of a great leader losing their dignity because of taking an elective
position is just hot air being blown by political enemies of one Raila Odinga.
The strategy has been executed so well that many of Raila’s supporters have
adopted the version. The truth is Kenyans elevate or lower a position depending
on who is seated there. If a criminal is in a position that was hitherto held
in high regard, the seat becomes less significant. Raila has always had the
ability to transform the positions occupied in line with the personality based
politics. In when he became energy minister and secretary general of Kanu in
2002, the respective positions received greater attention than at any point in
history. As a matter of fact, during his tenure as secretary general of Kanu,
the position glowed only in a manner comparable to Tom Mboya’s time as secretary
general of Kanu decades ago. As minister for roads, public works and housing,
the ministry still glowed. Attempts by Kibaki to weaken the position by taking
away the public works and housing divisions from his ministry had no effect.
The ministry of roads still glowed. When he left government and joined the
opposition after the 2005 referendum, prestige of being a parliamentarian
shifted to the opposition benches. He held no position in the opposition yet he
was regarded as the de facto opposition leader. This was despite the status-quo
oriented Uhuru was the head of official opposition at the time. The past is the
best indicator for the future and those supporters of Raila who believe that
being in parliament would diminish him could not be more mistaken. Raila has always managed to give positions held by him greater significance. He will certainly do the same with parliament.
There’s another reason why Raila should
re-enter parliament: influencing the location of the battle field. Uhuru lost
the election miserably despite having immense support from Kikuyu and Kalenjin
voters. Had it not been the intervention of ghosts, he’d not be president
today. That’s beside the point. The essence of influencing the location of the
battle field is that one gets to put their rivals on the defence rather than
giving them a chance to go on an all out attack. Any good soccer commentator will
tell you that the team that concentrates more on defence tends to lose. It is
the attacking team that often wins. The USA wins against terrorist because it
never allows the battle to be fought on US soil. They are in Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Iraq, South Korea, and even in Somalia albeit through proxy. The
casualties are always greater when the battle is fought at home. Applying this
to the Kenya situation, Uhuru is a man with state power but little public
support. 6 out of 8 regions voted decisively against him even though he managed
to create a miracle to garner a majority for his alliance in the legislature.
He’d want to go out there and move the public to his side. If he gave this endeavour
his full attention, there’s always the slim possibility that he could succeed.
However, if his attention is divided, he’d not be able to do this.
The rationale for this thinking is that
even though Uhuru may boast of a strong jubilee parliament, the only allegiance
he can take to the bank is that from legislators in his tribe. Raila has
constantly taken the position of defending marginalised groups and other
communities considered as “second class” in Kenya and sooner or later, many of
the jubilee MPs will have to choose between their people and Uhuru Kenyatta.
Your guess is as good as mine on that, but I can understand why Uhuru would be
jittery on that. That is why he uses his well oiled network to put pressure on
Raila to retire or at the very least lead from outside parliament. Raila’s
detractors are jittery about his entry into parliament because they know that all
that is needed is a strong leader in parliament and the inter-party lines will
collapse. This will get legislators to begin speaking in one voice (at least the clear majority of them) and they’ll do their
duty in checking the executive as expected. Of course Uhuru’s counter would be to try and
use to use jubilee speaker and deputy speaker as well as committee heads to
reduce Raila into being an ‘ordinary MP’. But your strategy works only if your
rival reacts as you expect him to. The success of this muzzling will only depend
on how CORD counters.
By shifting the struggle to control over who
controls parliament, attention is shifted away from the 6 regions in Kenya that
Raila has a firm control over. Besides, it must not be lost to Kenyans that MPs
are obsessed with power and easily affected by their fragile egos. An MP will
only listen to a person he considers to be his senior. As currently
constituted, there are no acknowledged seniors in the house. The MPs are like
sheep without a shepherd. The persons granted the opportunity to be shepherds
are nothing short of being fellow sheep and therefore not warranting any
consideration. The situation changes with Raila in parliament and Uhuru can
only count on the undying allegiance of his tribesmen. All other legislators
are out for grabs and the only way that Uhuru will manage to keep them will be
by ensuring that he serves the country well. Legislators are not the public.
The public has a memory shorter than the warthog, but legislators have long
memory and any agitation will never go unpunished for as long as there is a
strong leader to inspire the legislators to crack the whip. This means that
Raila can ensure jubilee government delivers by simply being seated in
parliament. This is why Kenyans need Raila in parliament.
The entry of Raila into parliament will not
diminish his stature. Instead, it will elevate the significance of parliament.
When the person commanding the clear majority in the country is a legislator,
the people will look up to the legislature for future directions. This is a
threat to the authority of Uhuru Kenyatta and that’s why there’s a coordinated
campaign. Leading from outside is a venture that requires lots of media
attention and immense creativity. Creativity is Raila’s domain. However, there
are questions on whether he can get as much media attention as he’d need to
lead from outside the house. We all know who owns the media in Kenya. A single
call from the criminals and people are given a blackout. We all witnessed the
partisan manner in which the Kenyan media behaved during the elections. CORD supporters
had to switch to Aljazeera, CNN and BBC just to know what their leader thinks
when the media was ranting on and on about irrelevant content on criminals. If
you think the script cannot be replayed, you’re mistaken. Raila is a brand that
cannot be suppressed but the cost of maintaining it will grow as days go and
Kenyans begin to forget the disappointments of the elections. The hype about Raila
being bigger than parliament will then be replaced by a cold reality that the
Kenyan leader will not be having a platform through which to defend his people;
and I can bet the criminals will spare no effort to make this prediction come
true. A wise man makes hay while the sun shines. Raila must enter parliament
and do his thing in there. That will make his work easier. The best war is one
that is won without engaging arms; and being in parliament allows Raila to win
this war with minimal ammunition.
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